If an election were held tomorrow, nobody would win.
That is the headline from YouGov’s latest MRP poll of nearly 17,000 people. Labour would emerge as the largest party with 241 seats, but well short of a majority. The Conservatives would take 130 seats and Reform UK 123.
Of course, there is an important caveat: the next General Election is not due until 2029. This is one poll, not a prophecy.
But perhaps that is precisely the point.
British politics has become extraordinarily difficult to predict. No party currently commands even a quarter of the vote in YouGov’s latest voting intention polling, while its MRP suggests 37% of constituencies would be decided by five percentage points or fewer.
And if you want evidence of how quickly the herd can shift, look back just twelve months.
In September 2025, the same YouGov model projected Reform UK winning 311 seats, putting it within touching distance of a majority. Labour was on 144 and the Conservatives languishing on just 45.
Today? Reform is projected on 123, Labour on 241 and the Conservatives on 130.
A year is a long time in politics. Three years is an eternity.
For family businesses, that matters.
Family firms do not plan around electoral cycles. Decisions about investment, recruitment, succession and growth are often made with the next generation in mind. Yet those decisions are profoundly affected by choices made in Westminster.
So FBUK cannot afford to spend the next three years trying to guess who might form the next government.
We need to talk to everyone – and we need to do it now.
That is why we have spent this year strengthening relationships across the political spectrum, making the case that supporting family businesses should transcend party politics.
In the spring, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP joined us at our Policy Summit, where we launched our Policy Agenda, Building Britain for Generations.
At our Family Business Week reception last year, Andrew Griffith MP – now Shadow Chancellor – delivered the keynote address and we were joined by other Conservative MPs who have repeatedly drawn on FBUK research in Parliament when challenging the Government’s changes to Business Property Relief.
And we are making sure the family business voice is heard at the heart of the current Government too.
In Andy Burnham’s first week as Prime Minister, our Chief Executive Neil Davy joined a small group of business leaders for the Prime Minister’s first talks with business organisations. Neil used that opportunity to make the case directly to the Prime Minister and senior officials that unlocking investment and growth from family businesses means reopening the conversation on Business Property Relief.
Since then, Neil has held a roundtable with Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, while our Policy and Public Affairs Director Matthew Jaffa was recently welcomed to No. 10 North for meetings.
That cross-party approach extends beyond Westminster. Across September and October, FBUK is attending the conferences of all four major political parties – Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Conservatives.
At each, our focus is the same: making sure family businesses are part of the political conversation, building relationships across the parties and making the case for the recommendations in our Policy Agenda.
That means engaging with politicians from across the political spectrum – not because we know what the political landscape will look like in three years’ time, but precisely because we don’t.
This isn’t political fence-sitting. It is political future-proofing.
Because whether the next election produces a majority government, a minority government, a coalition or something else entirely, the case for family business will remain the same.
Family businesses make up 93% of private firms. They employ 15.8 million people, generate £985 billion in GVA and contribute more than £422 billion in tax.
Those numbers do not change depending on who sits on the government benches.
Every major party talks about growth. But growth requires businesses willing to invest, employ and take risks – and the confidence to do so for the long term.
That is why our job is not to wait until an election campaign begins and then start engaging with whoever is leading in the polls.
It is to build the relationships now. To make the evidence impossible to ignore. And to build a durable, cross-party understanding of what family businesses need to thrive.
The next election may be unpredictable, but our message remains the same. Family businesses are ready to invest, employ and grow. With the right policy environment, they can drive growth in every part of the country and continue building Britain for generations to come.